Ducks Foul Out but Cats Out Fowled

MANHATTAN, Nov. 29 – The storyline Thursday night was talented youth versus veteran guile, as Oregon and Kansas State – two one-loss teams – squared off. Despite the month (November), both teams were looking to enhance their tournament resume with a quality win. A raucous crowd and numerous pro-prospects made the game destined to go the distance, even though the outcome was decided long before the blaring of the final overtime buzzer.

Oregon’s strategy of alternating man and zone schemes kept the deficit at around one possession for the majority of regulation time, despite strong Wildcat fan support. Then the Ducks took over. The catalyst came in the form of an intentional foul, as the Cats’ expectation of dominance came to light. From that point on, the Ducks were dominant, even though the game went to overtime. In overtime, it took the Ducks one possession to establish control. They never looked back.

The Wildcats had knock-out opportunities, but they couldn’t capitalize. They opened up a three-possession lead early in the game, but then lost it, and then later extended it to three possessions. This trend of building a three-possession lead continued in the second half: For thirty minutes, the Wildcats controlled nearly every facet of the game. Still, they couldn’t put Oregon away.

For its part, Oregon did a tremendous job of handling a hostile environment after the loss to St. Mary’s, adding a quality win to their resume in the process. But it took the emotional breakdown of a team to accomplish it. The Wildcats on the other hand proved that they can control a game against a top-twenty foe… as long as they focus on the now and not the previous possession.

Expect a stingy? Or Expect the Stinger!

SACRAMENTO, Nov. 27 – Thoughts create expectations. Expectations create behaviors. And behaviors create realities. That was the story in Sacramento Tuesday night, when the winless Spartans took on the winless Hornets. Something had to give; one team had to win. And the spoils eventually went to the Hornets, who managed to raise their expectations just high enough to eek out a sustained dominate posture in the game.

Sacramento State began their first dominate trend with about three minutes left in the first half. This was the first time the Hornets established that they were a better team, but only by a possession: 3 points or less. The Hornets’ control of the final three minutes of the first half set the expectation for the rest of the game. They managed to create a three-possession lead in the second half, but quickly saw it regress back to the collective expectation on the court: Hornets by three.

The Spartans didn’t go quietly. They generated a trend of dominance early in the game – and indeed throughout the majority of the first half – that elevated them to a sustained one-possession advantage, and even a two-possession advantage at times. But then disaster struck: Brittany Imaku, in foul trouble, was forced to sit, and the team went out of sync. With a handful of close losses still salient in their mind, dropping behind by a possession proved deadly for the Spartans, as the Hornets sustained their small lead by shooting adequately from the line in the final stretch.

The good news for the Hornets is that they earned their first victory of the season by believing that they could actually win a game. The arguable bad news is that this expectation was not self-derived. When the Spartans got into foul trouble, they became overly-aggressive, putting the Hornets at the line and thus in control of the game. The result: A subtle, but important, difference in dominance.